Главная Учебники - Разные НАК „НАФТОГАЗ УКРАЇНИ“. Річний звіт англійською (2017 рік)
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OUR PERFORMANCE ANNUAL REPORT 2017 117 116 system allocated to the transit business is almost equal to the value of pipelines used for existing transit routes (currently only Druzhba oil pipeline), which comprises about half of total value of oil transmission system as of 31.12.2017. If historical transit routes were preserved (such as Samara – Lysychansk – Tykhoretsk and Brody–Yuzhny in reverse mode), ROIC of oil transit would be much lower. If ROIC for the whole business group of oil transit and transmission is calculated for 2017, it would be 6%, which is less than the appraiser’s cost of capital (17.4%). Oil domestic transmission: UAH-denominated ROIC vs cost of capital, % 2016 2017 –6�8% –6�3% 17�4% 17�4% ROIC Oil transit: UAH-denominated ROIC vs cost of capital, % 2016 2017 20�5% 19�9% 17�4% 17�4% ROIC million t/year 90�0 80�0 70�0 60�0 50�0 40�0 30�0 20�0 10�0 0�0 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Transit Domestic transportation Total The Baltic pipeline route-1 The Baltic pipeline route-2 Bypassing pipeline to 78�0 66�9 68�5 65�3 64�6 65�4 64�0 48�0 54�9 44�9 40�9 29�8 17�2 16�9 15�2 64�1 65�2 63�6 56�7 46�7 50�9 38�5 25�2 17�6 16�8 16�0 36�9 19�2 17�9 15�2 11�2 12�0 7�6 20�6 22�4 11�7 8�1 9�7 2�7 1�8 1�4 11�2 11�3 15�0 23�5 15�3 11�1 9�4 7�4 2�0 1�6 2�1 41�1 47�7 50�6 50�1 53�4 53�4 56�4 27�4 32�5 33�2 32�8 20�1 14�5 15�0 13�8 52�9 53�9 48�6 33�2 31�4 39�8 29�1 17�8 15�6 15�2 13�9 2004-42 MT/y 2015-55 MT/y The volume of crude oil transportation Key problems: 1. Russia and Kazakhstan redirected oil export routes to Russian port terminals Russia is working to remove transit intermediaries as part of the Kremlin’s geo-economic strategy. This is precisely why Ukraine has been facing dramatic reductions in oil transit during the past few years. With the aim of bypassing transit countries, Russia completed construction of the Baltic Pipeline System (BTS-1 and BTS-2) with a total transfer capacity of 80 million tons of oil per year. As a result, in 2016 and 2017, about 80% of Russia’s crude oil and condensate exports were seaborne. However, regardless of the ultimate mode of transport, most of Russia’s crude oil exports must traverse Transneft’s pipeline system (RF oil pipeline operator), either as a direct route to reach bordering country or to reach Russian ports. Despite the growing share of oil supplies from the Russian Federation to the European market, the transit flow via the Ukrainian string of Druzhba oil pipeline is dropping. As a result of the low diversification of transit flows, the aggressive policies of neighboring countries and the slow response to changes in the market situation, Ukraine has lost more than 30 million tons of oil transit flow per year since 2001. 2. Lack of diversification Ukrainian transit oil flow comprises only oil from Russian producers. Transit volume Russia and Kazakhstan redirected oil export routes to Russian ports’ terminals since 2001 % % 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Share of Russia oil in EU import (left scale) CAGR 3�4% CAGR –7�1% Diversification of Hungarian import % 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 0 2014 2015 2016 2017 % Russian Federation oil % other oil (left scale) Total imported volume million barrels/year (right scale) 89% 79% 79% 60% 43�7 estimated losses of Ukrainian route 2�8 million t 45�1 43�8 43�8 |